On May 25, 2024, the CIDEG 2024 Annual Academic Conference was held in Tsinghua University. The theme of the conference is “ A Comparative Study of Chinese and Japanese Economic Policies: Structural Reform and Social Security System”. The conference brought together many experts and scholars in the field of Chinese and Japanese economic policies to discuss the experiences and challenges of China and Japan in economic structural reform and social security system.
Chen Ling, Professor, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, and Director of CIDEG, made the opening remarks.
The annual conference was opened by Prof. Chen Ling, Professor, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, and Director of CIDEG. Prof. Xue Lan, Distinguished Professor of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, dean of Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University, and joint chairman of CIDEG, delivered a speech.
Professor Xue Lan briefly reviewed the recent economic changes in China and Japan, providing a background for discussion. He pointed out that China's economy and industrial development have achieved significant transformation in recent years, evolving from the "old three" (clothing, home appliances, furniture) in the early stages of Reform and Opening up to the "new three" represented by new energy vehicles, with China's export product structure continuously optimizing and upgrading. This change not only reflects the new trends in China's economic development but also makes a positive contribution to the global green and low-carbon transformation. However, China also faces threats from tariffs and trade protectionism from Europe and America, bringing new challenges to exports and economic growth. On the other hand, Japan's economic situation has attracted international attention, especially the recent excessive depreciation of the yen, which has impacted the development of SMEs in Japan's domestic economy and also caused fluctuations in the international financial markets, but Japan still maintains strong competitiveness in many important industrial fields.
Xue Lan, Distinguished Professor of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, Dean of Schwarzman College, Joint Chairperson of CIDEG Academic Committee, Tsinghua University, delivered a speech
The first half of the annual conference, themed "Comparative Structural Reform," was chaired by Mr. Tatsuhito Tokuchi, former managing director of CITIC Securities and honorary advisor of CIDEG, Tsinghua University.
Mr. Tatsuhito Tokuchi, former managing director of CITIC Securities and honorary advisor of CIDEG, presided over the first half of the meeting.
Prof. Hoshi Takeo from the School of Economics of The University of Tokyo and Joint Chairperson of the CIDEG Academic Committee first delivered a speech on Japan's structural reforms. In his speech, he pointed out that structural issues are the key to understanding the long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy. He emphasized that economic slowdowns could have two causes: supply shortages and demand shortages. In Japan, the issue of demand shortages has been overly emphasized, while the identification and response to structural issues have been relatively delayed. Although Japan's structural reforms are underway, progress has been slow and has taken as long as 20 years or even longer. Despite this, Prof. Hoshi believes that signs of Japan's economic recovery are beginning to emerge, and the current government's structural reforms and corporate governance reforms are having a positive impact. He also pointed out that understanding structural issues is crucial to understanding Japan's economic stagnation over the past few decades, and it is not enough to simply emphasize the shortage of demand.
Hoshi Takeo, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, and Joint Chairperson of CIDEG Academic Committee, Tsinghua University, delivered a speech
Mr. Musha Ryoji, President of Musha Research and former Vice Chairman of Deutsche Bank Securities, provided a detailed explanation of the cyclical characteristics of Japan's economic recovery in his speech. He pointed out that the Japanese economy is gradually recovering from the stagnation of the past 30 years, mainly due to increased corporate revenues and a cyclical recovery in investment. Mr. Musha emphasized that Japan's economic recovery is not only driven by internal factors but also influenced by external factors, such as the rapid growth in semiconductor investments. Looking ahead, he believes that while there may be some adjustments in the rise of the Japanese stock market, the strong performance of corporate revenues will continue to support the economic recovery. He also compared the economic history of China and Japan, noting that the economic prosperity of both countries has been driven by external factors, and there are differences in how they have dealt with economic bubbles and the accumulation of foreign capital.
Musha Ryoji, President of Musha Research and former Vice Chairman of Deutsche Bank Securities, delivered a speech
During the discussion session, Professor Barry Naughton from the School of Global Policy and Strategy of the University of California, San Diego, and academic committee member of CIDEG, proposed that the competition between China and the United States in establishing high-tech systems will have a profound impact on the economic relations between the two countries. He pointed out that the cost of China's efforts towards technological self-reliance is very high, and although there may be success in certain areas, the overall outlook remains uncertain. In the next 2-3 years, both China and the United States may have a clearer understanding of each other's policies, and strategic conflicts may increase. He also proposed a worldview of "two half systems", where the United States, Japan, and Europe form one system, and China and Southeast Asia form another system, with emerging economies potentially choosing to side with China.
Prof. Barry Naughton, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, U.S. Academic Committee Member of CIDEG, delivered a speech
Mr. Wu Ge, Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities, and research fellow of the PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, briefly outlined the challenges China faces in dealing with economic transformation and short-term policies during the discussion. He mentioned that China's macroeconomic policies have been overly focused on stimulating the supply side while neglecting the expansion of demand, leading to a competitive landscape of "lower trading price for volume." He emphasized that China's current economic predicament has many similarities with Japan's economic experience over the past 30 years, and there is much to learn from Japan's experience.
Wu Ge, Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities and Research Fellow of The PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, delivered a speech
Professor Song Zheng, Head of the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, fellow of the World Econometric Society, and academic committee member of CIDEG, analyzed Japan's economic policies in the 1990s during the discussion. He pointed out that at that time, Japan's public investment was excessively directed towards sparsely populated areas, leading to local government debt and misallocation of infrastructure. Despite this, Japan promptly adjusted these policies in the early 2000s, reducing the level of public investment and reforming to decrease support for local government financing platforms. Professor Song concluded that Japan's experience in accepting economic realities and implementing significant policy measures is of great reference value to China.
Song Zheng, Head of the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Fellow of the World Econometric Society, and Academic Committee Member of CIDEG, delivered a speech
The second half of the annual conference focused on the study of "Comparison of Social Security Systems", chaired by Professor Hoshi Takeo.
Prof. Hatta Tatsuo, Chairman of the Executive Board, Asian Growth Research Institute and academic committee member of CIDEG, introduced Japan's social security system in his speech, including redistribution policies and public pensions. He pointed out that Japan's social security system has problems with unfair redistribution, especially the treatment differences between employees and the self-employed. He also mentioned that Japan's pension system has been transitioning from a pay-as-you-go system to a funded system, which has solved some issues but left the younger generation facing a double burden. Additionally, Professor Hatta emphasized that to achieve fair redistribution, funding should be provided through progressive taxation, and he suggested that China should consider these lessons when designing its social security system.
Prof. Hatta Tatsuo, Chairman of the Executive Board, Asian Growth Research Institute and Academic Committee Member of CIDEG, delivered a speech
Next, Professor Iwamoto Yasushi from the School of Economics at the University of Tokyo introduced Japan's healthcare system. He pointed out that Japan has been implementing universal health insurance since 1961. Despite facing financial burdens, the country offers high-quality medical services, and citizens have the freedom to choose their healthcare providers. Professor Iwamoto emphasized that with the intensification of population aging, Japan needs to reform its healthcare system to meet future challenges. He also noted that emerging and developing countries should anticipate and prepare in advance for the issue of population aging to ensure the sustainability of their healthcare systems.
Prof. Iwamoto Yasushi, School of Economics, University of Tokyo,delivered a speech
Professor Yue Ximing from the School of Finance at Renmin University of China compared and analyzed China's income disparity and social security redistribution issues in his speech. He pointed out that China has a high Gini coefficient, and the income gap needs to be narrowed. Professor Yue suggested that redistribution policies are more important in reducing the income gap than people think, especially since the policy effects of social security expenditures far exceed those of personal income tax. He also emphasized that to fully exert the redistribution effect, it should be achieved through progressive taxation and large-scale social security expenditures, all of which are important factors to consider in the reform of China's social security system.
Prof. Yue Ximing, School of Finance, Renmin University of China, delivered a speech
In the second half of the discussion session, Huang Wei, Associate Professor from the National School of Development, Peking University, and Masahiko Aoki Scholar, introduced the characteristics of China's social security system and analyzed the differences between China and Japan. Professor Huang analyzed the characteristics in three aspects: fertility, elderly care, and healthcare. The causes of China's aging and low fertility include both historical factors and policy factors, such as the population explosion in the 1960s and the "late, sparse, and few" policy in the 1970s. The main reasons for the decline in fertility rates are the increase in childbearing and economic costs. China's response strategies include relaxing birth policies and delaying retirement policies, while Japan focuses on improving living and working environments and fertility incentive policies. Unlike Japan, China's pension insurance contributions are mainly borne by enterprises, leading to an imbalance between the economy and the gap. Professor Huang emphasized that to enhance the effectiveness of social security, it is necessary to achieve more balanced elderly care and medical security through reform and policy adjustment. He also mentioned that the promotion of the New Rural Pension has had a significant effect on the improvement of welfare for the rural population and the reduction of mortality rates.
Huang Wei, Associate Professor, National School of Development, Peking University, Masahiko Aoki Scholar, delivered a speech
This annual meeting also invited CIDEG's academic committee members to provide guidance and participate in discussions, including Professor Antonio Andreoni, Professor of Development Economics in the Department of Economics at SOAS, University of London, Gao Shiji, Researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council and Director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy, Lu Mai, former Vice President of the China Development Research Foundation, Qian Yingyi, Distinguished Professor of Arts, Human and Social Science, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Qin Xiao, Chairman of Boyuan Foundation, Xiao Meng, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Comparative Studies, and Zheng Siqi (online), Professor of Urban and Real Estate Sustainable Development in the Center for Real Estate and the Department of Urban Studies and Planning at MIT, etc.
CIDEG's research fellows, including Bao Ge, Associate Professor at the School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Chen Jidong, Associate Professor at the School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Jia Kai, Associate Professor at the School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Jiang Feitao, Director of the Industrial Convergence Research Office and Researcher at the Industrial Economics Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,
Toshiya Tsugami(online), Visiting Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Studies, and other distinguished guests, as well as Associate Professor Wei Wenchi and Data Engineer Lai Jianxin from the School of Public Policy and Management at Tsinghua University, attended the conference. The annual conference also received strong support from the Overseas Program of the Research Institute of Tsinghua University, and special thanks to the arrival of Director Jiang Yongbin.
The annual conference also received attention and support from many experts, including Wang Ruimin, Associate Researcher at the Market Economy Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, Wu Suping, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Comparative Studies, and Yu Jiang, Contributing Editor of Comparative Studies, Zhang Tao, Director of the Market Research Division of the Financial Market Department of China Construction Bank and Wang Liwei, Assistant Managing Editor of the Caixin Summit, etc.
Through this annual conference, experts and scholars deeply discussed the experiences and challenges of China and Japan in economic policies and social security systems, providing valuable insights and suggestions for future policy-making. CIDEG will continue to build exchanges and cooperation between the academic communities of China and Japan, contributing wisdom and strength to the economic development and social progress of both countries.
CIDEG 2024 Academic Annual Confernce Venue
Content Arrangement: Miao Xinzhu, CIDEG Research Assistant