国务院发展研究中心原党组书记、副主任，清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心（CIDEG）理事长陈清泰在今年的“中国电动汽车百人会论坛”发表了题为“共享出行有望重构城市交通”的主题演讲，近期《中国日报》旗下China Watch 特将此发言翻译为英文，并在其英文杂志和网站发布。

    Development of intelligent electric vehicles should be aligned with that of new energy, and the industry chain should be developed in an eco-friendly way.

    The development of electric vehicles has entered the stage of industrialization. However, we need to think outside the box to evaluate the profound implications of this vehicle revolution. Looking to the future, developing electric vehicles, energy, public transport and cities as an integrated whole will facilitate the vehicle revolution producing the maximum social benefits.

    First, the synergy between the vehicle revolution and energy revolution will significantly optimize the energy mix of China. While the nation's oil consumption has been on the rise, the output at home has been declining. A report by the research institute of China National Petroleum Corporation warned: "In China, imported oil will account for 70 percent of the total consumption in 2018, and the issue of energy security can no longer be ignored." Every 1,000 Chinese people own 160 vehicles, a number expected to grow for a long period to come. Energy security will become a big problem if we rely too heavily on oil. To fulfill Chinese people's dreams of driving, the only viable choice is developing electric vehicles.

    The rapid development of renewable energy keeps abreast with that of electric vehicles. The large-scale development of electric vehicles requires massive power supply, while the large-scale development of renewable energy depends on the consumption and storage capacity of intermittent electric power supply. Linking up the two areas through the energy network will produce huge synergistic and complementary effects. For instance, the wind power wasted in 2016 alone was enough to charge more than 10 million electric vehicles in one year. In the future, the large number of electric cars will provide a massive storage and discharge capacity, and be able to support the development of renewable energy.

   Around 2010, California first rolled out a zero emissions vehicle program, and shortly afterward China drew up a national-level strategy on developing new energy vehicles. In 2016, many European countries laid out timetables for a ban on fossil fuel vehicles. In 2017, the European Union proposed stricter emissions standards, and set the targets of reducing 15 percent of carbon dioxide emissions from new passenger cars and vans by 2025 and 30 percent by 2030, pushing for the transformation of the auto industry. In July 2018, the UK Department of Transport issued its 147-page Road to Zero Strategy, which aims to halt the sales of fossil fuel vehicles in the market by 2040.

    The transformation of automobile power technology should have been a process driven by technological progress and the market. However, the intervention of government in many countries has become the primary driving force behind this automobile technology revolution.

    It is the shared goal of governments around the world to realize green transportation so as to fulfill the promises made in the Paris agreement on climate change. Therefore, the development of electric vehicles should be aligned with that of new energy, and the industry chain of electric vehicles should be developed in an eco-friendly way. By around 2025, the cost efficiency of electric vehicles will surpass that of oil-fueled cars, and the costs of solar power and wind power will drop below fossil fuel energy. The strength of the market will greatly boost the development of electric vehicles and energy transformation, moving faster to the goal of zero emissions transport.

    Today, the combination of electric vehicles, internet and automatic driving has brought new prospects for urban transport. Many reports show that internet-and intelligence-based electric vehicles will help cut down the cost of shared transport by 45 to 82 percent on average. At the same time, the sharing of traffic information in real time can increase travel efficiency.

    In China, many internet-savvy consumers have started to embrace the idea of "own less, share more". Shared vehicles, which can meet the travel demand of a wide range of groups, are gaining growing popularity among consumers. In 2018, Didi Dache, a leading car-hailing service company, offered more than 10 billion rides for 550 million people in 430 cities across the country, an equivalent of 27 million rides per day. Its service has been growing at a rate of around 40 percent for years. Against this background, some giants in the automobile industry have begun tapping into the car-sharing market.

    Cross-industry technology and new vehicle manufacturers have injected new innovation impetus into the electric vehicle market. However, good mobility only makes for the 1.0 version of electric vehicles, and it requires innovation in internet-and intelligence-based transport services to fully unleash the potential of vehicles to benefit society in the future. To upgrade electric vehicles into "powerful mobile intelligent platforms", and an electronic and internet-based product poses a huge challenge to traditional car manufacturers. It cannot be realized by simply installing various hardware and software on a vehicle.

    The younger generation in China has a strong preference and high demand for information technology, and the IT firms also have a strong will to meet their demand. Thus, internet-connected and intelligent vehicles can be realized in China. The internet-based vehicle manufacturers have ventured into this new market after seeing this opportunity. By redefining vehicles in the future with the participation of cross-industry technology and new auto manufacturers, we can ensure electric cars develop toward an internet-based and intelligent future.

    By 2030, the sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 15 million units, and autonomous cars are expected to be widely in use, with the ownership to reach 80 million. To fulfill this prediction, a profound industrial revolution involving the adjustment of energy structure, construction of the power grid, upgrading of transport infrastructure, support from new-generation mobile communications, adjustment and upgrading of industrial chains, change in standards and regulations, and transfer of job positions is required. The government should create top-level designs to prepare for the revolution.

    Vehicles, energy, communication, transport and cities should be considered together from the very beginning to realize the synergy of technology, planning, policy and regulations in an orderly manner. It is particularly crucial to break barriers, open up the market, and enhance cross-discipline and cross-industry coordination and innovation.

    China is anticipating the electric car revolution with greater enthusiasm than any other country. This revolution, based on renewable energy, is an integration of electric, internet, intelligent and sharing technologies, all emerging fields which have developed well in China over recent years and where we have comparative advantages. If we grasp the opportunity, we could become a winner.

文章来源自：《中国日报》China Watch